Virginia health authorities reported more than 400 new coronavirus cases Tuesday, largely consistent with a leveling off that has occurred over the last week.
The Virginia Department of Health also reported an increase in the death toll from 149 to 154.
The total number of cases in Virginia since the coronavirus arrived in the state now stands at nearly 6,200. The daily increase reported Tuesday of about 425 new cases is largely in line with what Virginia has seen over the last week.
On the Peninsula as of Tuesday, James City County has 128 positive cases of the coronavirus, Newport News has 93, Hampton has 73, York County has 35, Williamsburg has 20 and Poquoson has 6, according to the Virginia Department of Health’s website.
At least eight people from the Peninsula Health District and one person from the Hampton Heath District have died from the coronavirus.
The Peninsula Health District covers Newport News, Poquoson, Williamsburg, James City County and York County. The Hampton Health District covers Hampton.
On Monday, researchers with the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute said initial data suggest that social distancing and other mitigation efforts have largely stalled the growth rate in new cases. Modeling prepared by the institute suggests the growth rate could continue to grow at a minimal rate if Gov. Ralph Northam’s stay-at-home order stays in effect through its current June 10 deadline.
Unfortunately, the same model shows that lifting those restrictions in mid-June will still result in a significant spike in case in the summer, peaking in August.
Other models show the outbreak will essentially end in June if social distancing measures remain in place through May.
The University of Virginia model is built on several assumptions researchers said represent a best guess based on available data. For instance, the model assumes that 50 percent of the people who contract the virus will never actually get sick.
It also assumes that confirmed cases reported by public-health authorities represent only 15 percent of the true number of cases because of limits in testing and other gaps in data collection.
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