As pundits across the United States are calling Virginia’s Nov. 7 election a bell-weather for future elections, political scientists across Virginia are looking toward the immediate: voter-turnout.
Political scientists are expecting voters to flock to the polls, but not in the same numbers as last year’s Presidential Election. Turnout and the demographics of voters will help decide the election.
Geoffrey Skelley, a political scientist and spokesman for the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said he is expecting voter turnout in 2017 to be “somewhat higher” than the Gubernatorial election in 2013.
“Absentee and early voting numbers are higher than they were that year, and had already set a record for a non-Presidential year by Saturday,” Skelley said. “We don’t yet know whether this is the result of higher interest or just a greater tendency to vote early.”
Lower turnout could favor Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie over Democratic candidate Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, according to College of William and Mary political scientist John McGlennon.
If turnout was less than expected, the electorate would be generally “older, whiter, and more educated,” McGlennon said.
“The first two shifts are probably good for Gillespie: white voters and older voters tend to be more Republican leaning,” McGlennon said before indicating it isn’t all bad news for Northam.
“The latter shift might be slightly better for Northam, as recent elections have shown that more educated voters lean more Democratic, with a particularly large difference between whites with a college degree and whites without a college degree,” McGlennon said.
But, on a higher-turnout election day, it all comes down to who can bring more of their own voters.
“If one side is more animated and shows up at a relatively higher rate, that side is probably more likely to win, especially now that politics is so polarized that most voters already lean one way or the other,” Skelley said.
That means both parties are working on Get Out The Vote or GOTV campaigns to bring partisan voters to the polls.
“Making sure your party’s base shows up is critical to having a decent chance of winning,” Skelley said.
A demographic McGlennon said should worry the Northam campaign is the nonwhite vote. A loss of nonwhite voters could mean a loss for Northam.
“Lower nonwhite turnout is definitely bad for Northam, so the degree to which nonwhite voters drop off in 2017 compared to 2016 – particularly black voters – is definitely something to keep an eye on,” McGlennon said.
Polls open at 6 a.m. across the Historic Triangle, check back for results of the election after polls close at 7 p.m. on election night.
To find out more on where to vote, candidates’ stances, and what’s required to get into the polls, check out our guide to voting in the Historic Triangle.
