NORFOLK — The Hampton Roads region’s near miss with Hurricane Florence in 2018 prompted Old Dominion University researchers to look at the economic impact a Category 3 hurricane would have on the region.
According to the ODU News Center, the resulting study estimates that cost would be $15.6 billion, equal to 10% of the 2022 regional gross domestic product, with a temporary loss of more than 76,000 jobs.
The study was funded by the Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency and ODU’s Institute for Coastal Adaptation and Resilience. To calculate the physical damage of the hypothetical storm, researchers used Hazus — a standardized set of tools and data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency — to build a computer model of Hurricane Florence passing over Hampton Roads.
Using current data on “nuisance” flooding and mean high water levels, researchers established a 3.6-foot tidal offset — a calculated adjustment to account for higher baseline water levels — to model tide levels for a future hurricane scenario, according to the report.
The cities closest to the water and with the lowest elevation — Norfolk, Hampton and Poquoson — account for nearly 74% of the projected water damage, according to the study, with single and multi-family residences hit hardest.
The physical damage associated with a hurricane would also have a ripple effect throughout the economy, it added, with jobs that provide services to households — equipment and machinery repair, dry cleaning, personal care and death services — bearing the brunt of the costs, followed by retail and healthcare.
The study also shares some recommendations for the region. Citing a 2023 survey of Hampton Roads residents by the Insurance Information Institute that revealed only 17.2% of homeowners in the region have flood insurance, it suggests more people enrolling for flood insurance would help mitigate some of those economic impacts.
Other recommendations include investing in resilient infrastructure, diversifying the economy, enhancing workforce training and strengthening emergency response plans.
While the study focuses on building present day resiliency, the researchers also project the economic impact for the region if sea level rise continues at its current rate. Taking into account a possible future 6.6 feet tidal offset, water damage costs jump to $33.2 billion, equivalent to 32.3% of the 2022 regional GDP.
Read the full story at the ODU News Center. Read the full report on the ODU Digital Commons website.
