UPDATED 11 p.m. Wednesday
Hurricane Florence, a Category 4 beast less than 24 hours ago, has weakened into a Category 2 storm as it nears landfall in the Carolinas, the National Weather Service said late Wednesday.
At 11 p.m. Wednesday, Florence was 280 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, and 335 miles east-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. The storm, which is moving northwest at 17 mph, has sustained winds of 110 mph extending 80 miles from its center, the weather service said.
The projected path for Florence shows the storm coming ashore between Wilmington and the North Carolina-South Carolina state line before ultimately sliding northward toward western Virginia.
The storm is slowing down as it approaches land, and it is likely to linger over the Carolinas into the weekend.
In Hampton Roads, a tropical storm watch remains in effect from Poquoson to the Virginia-North Carolina border. The watch means that tropical storm-force winds — 39 to 73 mph — are possible within the next 36 hours.
In Wilmington, the weather service expects the first severe winds from Florence to hit the area around 2 p.m. Thursday, with the eye striking the Wilmington area 24 hours later, according our sister publication PortCityDaily.com.
Besides the dangers posed by Florence’s winds, concerns in the Wilmington area are now shifting to flooding and storm surge. Florence could cause surges of 6 to 9 feet if the storm’s peak impact occurs during high tide. By comparison, Hurricane Hazel — which was a Category 4 storm when it slammed into the North Carolina coast in 1954 — caused an 18-foot surge.
The storm could shatter Wilmington rainfall records as areas near the coast could see as much as 3 feet of rain while inland regions could get 7 to 20 inches, the weather service said. That much rain makes flooding of low-lying areas in the region a virtual certainty and will likely cause watersheds, retention ponds and tributaries to overflow, the agency said.
Florence is expected to bring rain and high tides to the Williamsburg area in the coming days, but the area won’t experience the deluge that had been predicted, forecasters say.
“Yesterday we were looking at double-digit rainfall totals over a fairly wide area. Those are now more confined to our North Carolina counties,” said Ryan Rogers, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Wakefield, on Wednesday.
Rogers said the atmospheric steering currents that can dictate a hurricane’s path are projected to stall shortly after Florence makes landfall, meaning the storm will likely meander farther west than previously expected.
Jeff Orrock, chief meteorologist for the Wakefield weather office, said Florence remains a threat to Hampton Roads because the storm could bring heavy rain, strong winds and tidal flooding to the region.
“I don’t want folks dropping their guard,” he said.
Parts of the region should start experiencing Florence’s effects Thursday afternoon with 20-mph winds that will gust up to 30 mph, Orrock said. Those winds will increase over the next few days, with 50-mph gusts possible on Saturday.
Orrock said the high winds will increase the possibility of tidal flooding, with the worst coming during Friday afternoon’s high tide.
As for rain, Hampton Roads should receive 3 to 6 inches, Orrock said, although the amount will vary depending on the area.
Although Florence is tracking well south of Hampton Roads, Historic Triangle residents should be prepared for flooding and possibly downed trees, forecasters said.
“We definitely don’t want people to forget about it,” Rogers said. “We’re happy that the impacts here to the local area appear to be decreasing, but these things can change quite quickly. A swing back in the other direction is less likely but certainly still possible.”
Our sister publication HNNDaily.com contributed to this report.
