There are three candidates vying for the governor’s seat next month and the latest poll results show the race is narrowing just 22 days before the November election.
Released Tuesday morning, the Monmouth University Poll said the race between Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam is “deadlocked.”
Since September polls, Gillespie has gained traction in Western Virginia, giving the candidate a 1-point lead over Northam. Of likely voters, Gillespie is polling at 48 percent with Northam trailing at 47 percent.
Libertarian Cliff Hyra, who entered the race in late April, received just 3 percent of the likely vote – 1 percent higher than a previous Monmouth University poll. Undecided voters take just 3 percent of the vote.
The race has been a close one for several months, earlier polls have shown. In July, each major-party candidate held 44 percent of the vote. By September, Northam had gained a 5-point lead over Gillespie.
“This has never been more than a 5-point race in Monmouth’s polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing. We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, in a new release on Tuesday.
Regional political difference continues to play a role in election outcomes. Tuesday’s poll results showed that Gillespie has gained key support in the western part of the Commonwealth with 64 percent of the likely vote, giving the candidate a more than 30-point lead over Northam in the region.
Northam’s support in Northern Virginia increased, with the candidate also getting 64 percent of the likely vote and a 32-point lead over Gillespie.
Voters in Eastern Virginia are split at 48 percent for Gillespie and 45 percent for Northam, who previously had a 9-point lead in the region.
Northam also lost the edge in Central Virginia with support from 47 percent of likely voters choosing Gillespie while 44 percent opted for Northam. September poll results gave Northam a 1-point lead in the region.
“As the northern and western parts of Virginia revert to their partisan norms, the battle for swing voters will occur right down the I-95 corridor,” Murray said.
Of the most important issues, Gillespie was chosen over Northam on jobs and the economy, 41 to 29 percent, and handling crime, 40 to 24 percent,
“Painting Northam as soft on crime, especially with the MS-13 gang spots, appears to have been effective,” Murray said, referring to television ads run by Gillespie’s campaign. “This is a game of inches right now, so any small advantage counts.”
Voters again chose Northam, a pediatric neurologist, on handling health care, 42 percent to 32 percent, and education, 39 percent to 27 percent. While Northam holds the majority vote on the two issues, poll results showed voters in the western part of the Commonwealth chose Gillespie over Northam on both.
“In last week’s debate, Northam made a specific appeal to voters in the western part of the state on issues such as education and healthcare. It doesn’t appear to have worked,” Murray said.
Tuesday’s poll also showed that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at 38 percent, with a 55 percent disapproval.
Most voters said the president isn’t a major factor in their vote for governor. Less than a third of voters said Trump is a major factor, while 14 percent called the president a minor factor in their gubernatorial vote choice.
“It is difficult to tease out a specific Trump effect from all the other considerations Virginians make in deciding how to vote in this race. But it does appear that the president may be an increasing factor in places where Democrats tend to dominate, which could end up helping Northam’s turnout in the DC suburbs,” Murray said.
Nearly half of likely voters – 48 percent – said Gillespie “understands the day to day concerns of people like them,” while 45 percent of voters said the same of Northam.
Overall, voter opinion of Gillespie polled at 41 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable, while voter opinion of Northam is more positive at 40 percent favorable and 27 percent unfavorable.
“Ralph Northam is the less disliked candidate, but he can’t shake Ed Gillespie on some key issues,” said Murray.
Poll officials suggest that Northam’s lead loss may be directly impacted by Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s approval rating, which fell to 49 percent this month – a 6-point decrease from September polls.
The Virginia Public Access Project also released updated September campaign finance information for each candidate Tuesday morning.
During the month of September, Northam pulled in more than $5 million in donations. Gillespie received almost $3.9 million and Hyra gained $9,000 in donations.
Both major party candidates’ September expenditures went to media companies. Northam spent more than $4.1 million while Gillespie spent roughly $1 million less.
As of Sept. 30, Northam had more than $5.6 million on hand, Gillespie reported just under $2.5 million while Hyra held about $4,000.
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This article was published in partnership with WYDaily’s sister publication, Southside Daily.
