Though the current popular vote totals from the Virginia Department of Elections show Democrat Mark Warner with an approximately 16,000 vote lead in the U.S. Senate race, his Republican challenger has not conceded.
Warner, the incumbent, declared victory early Wednesday over Republican Ed Gillespie and Libertarian Robert Sarvis. But according to the department of elections, Gillespie trails by less than 1 percent, making him eligible to request a recount if Warner’s lead does not grow to more than 1 percent when electoral boards across the state finalize the results from yesterday’s race later Wednesday.
In the Historic Triangle, Gillespie carried James City and York counties by double-digit margins, but Warner won the City of Williamsburg by almost 30 percent. Those figures come after approximately 36 percent of Williamsburg’s voters, about 46 percent of York County’s voters and about 50.01 percent of voters in James City County turned out to participate in Tuesday’s election.
The Virginia Public Access Project, a nonprofit that tracks elections in Virginia, said a discrepancy in votes in Rockingham County — which surrounds Harrisonburg —could yield a few thousand more votes for Gillespie. That discrepancy will be resolved when Rockingham County’s electoral board issues its final results.
Virginia law requires candidates seeking a recount to make the request within 10 days. The request must be paid for by the candidate’s campaign.
Warner’s camp is not worried about either the electoral board analyses of results or the possibility of a recount.
“It’s a close election, but it’s not a small lead,” said Mark Elias, an attorney with experience in elections across the country who is working with the Warner campaign. “We are not talking about the kind of razor-thin margins that lead to prolonged post-election efforts.”
Gillespie’s campaign manager, Chris Leavitt, said in an email to supporters the Republican candidate is waiting for official tallies from the department of elections.
“Whatever the final decision of Virginia’s voters, Ed will respect it,” Leavitt wrote.
Elias said he has been involved with hundreds of campaigns across the country and that recounts tend to produce the same results unless the difference between the candidates is a few hundred votes or less.
Two processes underway could still add or subtract votes to the candidates’ totals. Some votes could be added or subtracted as the electoral boards work through their certification efforts. Other votes could be added when provisional ballots — which are cast by people who cannot meet the requirements to vote on Election Day — are analyzed for eligibility and then added to the totals.
Elias said Democrats historically gain more votes in both processes, noting that was the case in last year’s razor-thin attorney general race, which Democrat Mark Herring won.
“I expect that we will be at the end of this process certified the winner by the counties and by the state,” Elias said. “There is no precedent for a lead of this magnitude changing over the course of [the electoral board analysis] or any recount process.”
An official winner will not be declared until at least Nov. 24, when the State Board of Elections will meet to certify the state’s results.
Though the senate race remains deadlocked, Republican Rob Wittman cruised to an early victory Tuesday for the seat representing the Historic Triangle in the U.S. House of Representatives. Like Gillespie, he won James City and York counties while losing Williamsburg.
The win guarantees the Northern Neck resident a fourth term in the House representing the First District, which includes the Historic Triangle, the Middle Peninsula, the Northern Neck and Fredricksburg.
A constitutional amendment on the ballot to exempt from property taxes the home of surviving spouses of deceased armed forces members who died in action passed with 87.2 percent of Virginians saying yes. In the Historic Triangle, 87 percent of voters in the counties said yes while 82 percent in the city voted for its passage.
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