The York County Board of Supervisors received a presentation from an economist Tuesday who said the region is lagging behind the nation in its recovery from the recession.
The economist’s presentation was part of a larger discussion on the progress County Administrator James McReynolds, Deputy County Administrator Vivian McGettigan and other county staff members have made in creating a five-year budget plan to better forecast trends affecting the county.
County staff is currently working with the economist, Greg Grootendorst of Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, to determine the fiscal outlook for the county and the region in the future before honing in on specific programs and details that will be included in the plan.
Grootendorst shared figures and trends for all of Hampton Roads at Tuesday’s work session, telling the supervisors that while the nation has shown a sustained trend of workforce recovery, Hampton Roads has lagged behind due to its reliance on the federal government as a job creator. The region lost nearly 50,000 jobs during the recession, and the deficit remains at about 30,000.
“If we grow at an average rate, it will take us into 2019 before we get back to where we were,” Grootendorst said.
He said healthcare has been the single largest job creator in the area, with administrative and support jobs, education and leisure and hospitality following. The biggest losses were in science and technical services, construction, government jobs, transportation, utilities and information.
Hampton Roads is also lagging behind in retail growth, and while the housing construction levels are slightly above the national average, housing prices have stagnated and are higher than what incomes across the area suggest they should be.
“For that reason, I think it will be a while before we see strong growth,” Grootendorst said.
Defense spending, which accounts for 34 percent of the region’s employment, is also “declining steadily.” He said those jobs are not likely to come back.
“We’re not going to see strong economic growth,” Grootendorst said. “People are still not spending what they thought they would. There is still some weakness in the economy.”
The supervisors did not discuss the contents of Grootendorst’s presentation. County staff will use information from him as they work to prepare the five-year plan, which is projected to be complete by the end of the county’s next budget cycle in 2015. Once it is complete, it will be updated each year.
The supervisors also learned of a projected $1.8 million budget surplus from the fiscal year that ended in June. Once the surplus amount is finalized in January, the money will be directed toward infrastructure spending as it is every year. The cash from budget surpluses allows the county to spend more cash up front and borrow less on bonds to fund infrastructure projects.
“We’ve worked very diligently to make sure we stay within the limits of our resources,” McReynolds said of the surplus.
The projected $1.8 million surplus is the latest in a string of budgets surpluses the county has had at the end of recent fiscal years.
