Voters go to the polls in less than 24 hours, and the latest poll results show the race is still a close one.
On Monday afternoon, the Monmouth University Poll results showed that current Lt. Gov. and Democrat Ralph Northam holds a 2-point lead over his gubernatorial opponent, Republican Ed Gillespie.
“The two candidates have solidified support in their regional strongholds leaving the Commonwealth’s central region as the kingmaker,” a news release from the university read.
As of Monday, 47 percent of likely voters support Northam, 45 percent support Gillespie and 3 percent support Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra. About 5 percent of voters are still undecided.
Northam has gained a slight edge over last month’s results. In October, 48 percent of likely voters supported Gillespie while 47 percent chose Northam. In July, voters were deadlocked with 44 percent of likely voters supporting either major party candidate.
“Despite some wide variations in other public polls on this race, Monmouth has consistently shown this to be a tight contest,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The nominal lead has gone back and forth between the two candidates. It could be anybody’s game tomorrow.”
Northam still carries Northern Virginia with 59 percent of the likely vote to Gillespie’s 30 percent. But in the western part of the Commonwealth, Gillespie leads by a similarly wide 64 percent to 30 percent margin.
Northam again leads eastern Virginia with 54 percent to Gillespie’s 39 percent after the Republican hopeful closed the gap in October.
“Gillespie is performing very strongly in the western region and may even eclipse Donald Trump’s 2016 majority there,” Murray said. “Northam is doing about the same in Northern Virginia as Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 showing and is running slightly better than the incumbent did along the Chesapeake Bay. It’s all going to come down to the central part of the state. The counties surrounding the greater Richmond area are likely to determine the next governor.”
The contest lies in the central region, according to the poll results. Northam leads the area by 3 points, earning 48 percent of the likely vote. In 2013, Gov. Terry McAuliffe secured the region with a 4-point lead.
“Early in this race, it appeared that both candidates were shooting for crossover appeal, with Northam doing better than expected in Republican areas and Gillespie performing respectively well in Democratic-leaning counties,” Murray said. “The electorate has since reverted to partisan norms as the campaign has taken a decidedly nasty turn.”
One day before the election, nearly two-thirds of Virginia voters said the governor’s race is generally negative, indicating a major change from September when about 56 percent said it had been positive.
Among those who called the race negative, about 34 percent attribute it to Gillespie while 27 percent said it was due to Northam. About 35 percent said both candidates are equally to blame.
Northam’s favorability is also on the upswing, climbing 3 points to 43 percent from September. Gillespie’s favorability has remained at 40 percent, the poll results show, which is down 1 point since October.
Gillespie is still the preferred candidate when it comes to handling jobs and the economy by a 40 percent to 33 percent margin and on handling crime by a 42 percent to 30 percent margin over Northam.
Northam remains the likely choice for handling health care by a 45 percent to 33 percent margin and on handling education by a 44 percent to 30 percent margin over Gillespie.
Poll results also showed that the president’s impact is consistent, with 4-in-10 voters, or 27 percent, saying he is a major factor. About 16 percent said President Donald Trump is a minor factor in the race.
The majority of voters, about 56 percent, said the president is not a factor in their choice for governor.
Trump’s approval rating of likely voters has remained consistent since July, with 41 percent approving and 53 percent disapproving of his time in office.
“Whatever impact Trump has on voters’ decision-making process was already baked in from the start of this campaign,” Murray said. “The bigger question now is whether he will be a factor in energizing turnout for either candidate.”
Overall, 43 percent of voters said that things in Virginia are headed in the right direction, while 46 percent said things have gotten off-track. Results are down from July when 51 percent of voters said the state was headed in the right direction.
Gov. Terry McAuliffe earns a 45 percent approval rating in the latest poll, down 4 percent from last month and 10 percent from September.
Monmouth University estimates that less than half of registered voters – about 44 percent – will participate in state elections tomorrow, up slightly from 2013’s 43 percent.
This story was published in partnership with our sister publication, Southside Daily.
