Tuesday, August 9, 2022

New gubernatorial poll has Northam leading over Gillespie

RICHMOND — Gubernatorial hopeful and current Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam is leading the governor’s race as of Tuesday morning with an increased margin over Republican opponent Ed Gillespie.

In a poll released by Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs, Northam is now five points ahead of Gillespie, taking an estimated 42 percent of the November vote.

Gillespie took 37 percent of the vote, with Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra having about 6 percent.

Tidewater voters are split, with 39 percent supporting Northam and 35 percent behind Gillespie.

Northam has a lead in Northern Virginia over Gillespie, with estimates at 54 percent to 25 percent, respectively. Gillespie leads in the western part of the state, at 47 percent to 21 percent. Voters are also split in the northwest, with 38 percent supporting Gillespie and 35 percent supporting Northam.

According to the poll results, decided Virginia voters stayed consistent in their statewide candidate preferences, but a “significant number of voters remain undecided in each race.”

According to the poll, about 13 percent of voters remain undecided.

The poll also showed that Democrat candidates are leading statewide races across the board.

In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Justin Fairfax also holds a five-point lead with an estimated 43 percent of the vote. Republican Jill Vogel garnered about 38 percent, while roughly 15 percent remains undecided.

An estimated 45 percent of voters will choose Democrat Mark Herring for attorney general this election, leaving about 39 percent supporting Republican John Adams, while 15 percent of voters are undecided.

Results for the university’s poll used a random sample of 806 adults in Virginia, contacted by telephone from July 17-25. Respondents were asked which party they would rather see in control of the Virginia General Assembly.

Poll findings have an overall margin of error of 4.2 percent, according to the news release, with the margin of error for registered voters (707 adults) is plus or minus 4.5 percent. The margin of error for likely voters (538 voters) is 5.1 percent.

Each of the 100 House of Delegates seats are up for election in just three months. The poll estimates that Republicans are holding a 66-34 advantage. About 48 percent of likely voters said they would rather Democrats control the General Assembly, while 41 percent said they would prefer Republican control according to the poll results.

Read the full study online.

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