WILLIAMSBURG — Ellen Laipson was the featured speaker at Tuesday’s League of Women Voters Great Decisions Lecture, speaking on Middle East Realignment.
Director of the Master’s in International Security degree program and the Center for Security Policy Studies in the Shar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, Laipson joined George Mason after a distinguished 25-year career in government and as president and CEO of the Stimson Center (2002-15). She also serves on several boards related to international security.
Laipson highlighted key points from the briefing book registrants receive when they sign up for the series. The article “The United States and the Middle East” by Marc Lynch, explored the history of America’s role in the Middle East and critical issues today.
Laipson noted 1979 was a pivotal moment: the Iranian revolution when the Shah was deposed, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, and the radical Islamists took over a key mosque in Saudi Arabia, leading to the religious establishment assuming power.
She called the decade of the 90s the era of greatest US impact. However, by 2000, the U.S. “became a bit complacent and their primacy shifted more to the gulf.” Now, Laipson questions whether the U.S. has disengaged from the Middle East in favor of China.
She said the U.S. is trying to figure out the right size of security to provide and noted the region is starting to set its own agenda, suggesting that America’s recalibration of its role in the Middle East is a net positive.
Laipson then shifted to today’s headlines and the war in Gaza, suggesting that Israel had gotten complacent and “thought that Gaza had accepted the ‘rules of the game.’” She noted that Israel’s over-reliance on technology, such as the use of cameras, led to the reduction of troops which she described as a “classic mistake.”
“We have not begun to wrap our heads around the effect of this humanitarian crisis,” she said.
Attendee Les Solomon said the issue is very close to his heart as he has visited Israel, Gaza and the West Bank.
“I appreciated that today’s speaker discussed the history and challenges that started before Oct. 7,” Solomon said. “I also appreciated that the speaker brought up that this war is a violation of ‘just war’ principles.”
Laipson suggested the U.S. would be willing to go back to the two-state solution, but that current fighters reject this concept, noting there is a group of ethno-nationalists in Israel who think that a one-state solution is possible.
Laipson worries that there is such an absence of trust and empathy by both the Israelis and the Palestinians — “So much has been lost by this war,” she said.
Laipson concluded by praising CIA Director Bill Burns for the efforts he is making in the Middle East. She suggested possible outcomes: Gulf states are sympathizing with Israel, Hamas has become the symbol of resistance, and we are isolated at the UN. She suggested that the Middle East conflict may have become a domestic issue for the upcoming election, with Republicans supporting Israel and Democrats more divided.
“She was a wonderful speaker,” said Jack Snell, who attended the lecture in person. “She has a great command of the field, but I was curious by her lack of mention of Iran.”
Mary Ann Moxon, who participated by Zoom, added, “This presentation shed light on a very difficult-to-comprehend part of the world. But we didn’t see any solutions. It’s an ongoing saga, and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight.”
Next week’s speaker will be Julius Odhiambo, an assistant professor at William and Mary, where he teaches the Introduction to Global Health and Methods of Health Development, on Mar. 5. He will speak on “Pandemic Preparation,” what lessons we have learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, and how can we apply these lessons in the future.
For more about the Great Decisions series, visit the League of Women’s Voters website.
